RISK REDUCTION IN A PROJECT PORTFOLIO

被引：17

作者：

Guan, Dujuan ^{[1
,2
]}

Guo, Peng ^{[1
]}

Hipel, Keith W. ^{[3
,4
]}

Fang, Liping ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Northwestern Polytech Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710072, Peoples R China

[2] Hefei Univ, Dept Management, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Waterloo, Dept Syst Design Engn, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada

[4] Ctr Int Governance Innovat, Waterloo, ON N2L 6C2, Canada

[5] Ryerson Univ, Dept Mech & Ind Engn, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING | 2017年 / 26卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Project portfolio; integrated risk; set theory; Bayesian network; risk assessment; MANAGEMENT; NETWORKS; SELECTION; BENEFIT;

D O I：

10.1007/s11518-016-5296-2

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学]; O22 [运筹学];

学科分类号：

070105 ; 12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.

引用

页码：3 / 22

页数：20

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