Forecasting the amount and cost of medicine to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nepal using knowledge on medicine usage from a developed country

Objectives This research was aimed to forecast the amount and cost of medicines required to treat people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Nepal over 30 years. Methods We modelled the financial burden of T2DM medicines by estimating the cost of medicines to treat all cases of T2DM in Nepal over three decades based on the prevalence of T2DM in Nepal, the Nepalese costs of medicine and the T2DM medicine use profile of Australia. Key findings With the current T2DM prevalence trend, it would cost US$63-95 million in 2013 to purchase T2DM medicines for Nepal, if Nepalese receive the same mix of T2DM medicines as used in Australia. This cost is almost one-quarter of the total health budget of Nepal (US$308 million). The cost of medicines to treat T2DM is projected to triple between 2013 and 2043. Conclusions With the medicines for only T2DM projected to cost about 25% of the entire health budget, the planned health insurance seems unaffordable if patients are treated with the same medicines as those in one of the best healthcare systems in the world. The government needs to stimulate rational prescribing and secure additional funding through taxation, health insurance or health levy to provide such medicines and services.