Field experiment estimate of electoral fraud in Russian parliamentary elections

被引：74

作者：

Enikolopov, Ruben ^{[1
,2
]}

Korovkin, Vasily ^{[1
,3
]}

Petrova, Maria ^{[1
,4
]}

Sonin, Konstantin ^{[1
,5
]}

Zakharov, Alexei ^{[2
,6
]}

机构：

[1] New Econ Sch, Moscow 117418, Russia

[2] Inst Adv Study, Sch Social Sci, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[4] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[5] Higher Sch Econ, Dept Econ, Moscow 109028, Russia

[6] Citizen Observer Grp, Moscow, Russia

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2013年 / 110卷 / 02期

关键词：

nondemocratic government; authoritarian politics; COMPETITION; CORRUPTION; GROWTH;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.1206770110

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Electoral fraud is a widespread phenomenon, especially outside the developed world. Despite abundant qualitative and anecdotal evidence on its existence from around the world, there is very limited quantitative evidence on the extent of electoral fraud. We exploit random assignment of independent observers to 156 of 3,164 polling stations in the city of Moscow to estimate the effect of electoral fraud on the outcome of the Russian parliamentary elections held on December 4, 2011. We estimate the actual share of votes for the incumbent United Russia party to be at least 11 percentage points lower than the official count (36% instead of 47%). Our results suggest that the extent of the fraud was sufficient to have had a substantial impact on the outcome of the elections; they also confirm that the presence of observers is an important factor in ensuring the integrity of the procedure.

引用

页码：448 / 452

页数：5

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