Canal breach risk assessment for improved asset management

Advances in inundation modelling software, computer hardware and national data sets mean that it is now practical to use full solutions of the two-dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) to undertake national-scale modelling of breach inundation. Such modelling enables much improved asset management activities, which lead to reduced risk to life, lower risk of damage to properties and a much better targeting of investment by asset owners. This paper describes how a 2D SWE inundation modelling system was designed and applied to the UK Canal and River Trust canal system as part of a quantitative high-level risk assessment framework. The framework includes a new approach for estimating breach probability and hydrographs in the canal system for potential embankment and culvert failures. An innovative automated model build-and-run process using Isis 2D software was applied to model inundation in urban areas. Predicted likely loss of life and property damage outputs were used to generate a risk chart to prioritise asset inspection and maintenance.