The Impact of TPP and TTIP on the International Trade in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Two emerging tracks of trade agreements-TransPacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and Trans-atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement would have significant effects on the world economy. This paper designs four simulations generated by these tracks, which are TTP10, TPP16, TIPP and TPP+ TIPP, then uses Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the economic effects. The results show that most countries, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, would gain from the TPP and TIPP agreement while China's real GDP and export would fall. For Example, the output of textile industry would shrink the most significantly compared with that of other industries in China.