Neural Network Prediction of ICU Length of Stay Following Cardiac Surgery Based on Pre-Incision Variables

Background Advanced predictive analytical techniques are being increasingly applied to clinical risk assessment. This study compared a neural network model to several other models in predicting the length of stay (LOS) in the cardiac surgical intensive care unit (ICU) based on pre-incision patient characteristics. Methods Thirty six variables collected from 185 cardiac surgical patients were analyzed for contribution to ICU LOS. The Automatic Linear Modeling (ALM) module of IBM-SPSS software identified 8 factors with statistically significant associations with ICU LOS; these factors were also analyzed with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) module of the same software. The weighted contributions of each factor ("trained" data) were then applied to data for a "new" patient to predict ICU LOS for that individual. Results Factors identified in the ALM model were: use of an intra-aortic balloon pump; O-2 delivery index; age; use of positive cardiac inotropic agents; hematocrit; serum creatinine >= 1.3 mg/deciliter; gender; arterial pCO(2). The r(2) value for ALM prediction of ICU LOS in the initial (training) model was 0.356, p < 0.0001. Cross validation in prediction of a "new" patient yielded r(2) = 0.200, p < 0.0001. The same 8 factors analyzed with ANN yielded a training prediction r(2) of 0.535 (p < 0.0001) and a cross validation prediction r(2) of 0.410, p < 0.0001. Two additional predictive algorithms were studied, but they had lower prediction accuracies. Our validated neural network model identified the upper quartile of ICU LOS with an odds ratio of 9.8(p < 0.0001). Conclusions ANN demonstrated a 2-fold greater accuracy than ALM in prediction of observed ICU LOS. This greater accuracy would be presumed to result from the capacity of ANN to capture nonlinear effects and higher order interactions. Predictive modeling may be of value in early anticipation of risks of post-operative morbidity and utilization of ICU facilities.