Development conventions: theory and the case of Brazil in the latter half of the twentieth century

For Keynes, convention is a device used to circumvent uncertainty. For French conventionalists (FCs), convention coordinates behavior in complex market situations. Brazilian economist Fabio Erber contributed to this debate by formulating a concept of development convention (DC) and thus making this subject particularly interesting to economists and policymakers in developing countries. Because development refers to long-term structural changes, DCs are identified over the long term. Further, multiple DCs can coexist in a given society; however, only one can be hegemonic or dominant at any particular point in time. DCs can be revealed by examining the historical evidence pertaining to that society. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the Brazilian development experience during the latter half of the twentieth century. There has been a struggle for hegemony between two types of DCs in Brazil: the pro-growth state-led DC and the pro-stability free-market DC. From World War II until the 1970s, the former DC was hegemonic, but it has since been replaced by the pro-stability free-market DC. The conservative conduct of monetary policy in Brazil since the 1990s has been built on the hegemony of the stability convention. This perspective has created space for a research program based on political economy and devoted to the study of Brazilian contemporary monetary policy, which helps explain why Brazil has consistently maintained the world's highest interest rates for so long.