Real-time Dispatching Operation Risk Assessment Based on Fault Tree Theory

Reasonable dispatching strategies are important to guarantee secure and reliable operation of power system. Now the operators use real-time data and their experience to dispatch the system, but the huge data system brings much inconvenience to operators. In this paper, the risk theory is introduced into dispatching operation quantitative assessment, and a real-time dispatching operation risk analysis method is proposed. Fault tree is used to simulate dispatching operation process and comprehensively analyze the system risk in both under-successful and failure state of the operation. Risk indices are given to quantitatively reflect the risk level of each operation step based on local information, such as voltage out-of-limit risk, line overload risk, load curtailment risk, so that the operators can clearly recognize the risk and risk sources in each operation step and take corresponding pre-control measures. Finally, the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method is validated by an IEEE RTS test system.