Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Based on Spatial Panel Data Model: Evidence from China

To respond to the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity, the question of how to adopt actively appropriate strategies is particularly critical for the stakeholders. However, the previous researchers have paid more attention to investigating the measure methods, regional differences, and determinants of Chinese agricultural total factor productivity, but the possible impact of climate change factors like rainfall, temperature, and evaporation on regional agricultural total factor productivity in China have not yet received the attention that they deserve. Furthermore, more importantly, the study on how to take active measures to reduce and mitigate the negative effects from climate change is relatively small. Therefore, in allusion to the above-mentioned problems, using the data envelopment analysis and building a spatial panel data model embedded with climate change factors, this paper calculated Chinese agricultural total factor productivity and then explored the possible impact of climate change on regional agricultural total factor productivity at a provincial level in China. Results mainly show that the impact of some factors, like annual total precipitation, average temperature in the growing season, and evaporation intensity on regional agricultural total factor productivity, are all very significant and negative, which suggests that the more precipitation, the higher the temperature is, and the higher evaporation intensity would lower agricultural total factor productivity in China. Furthermore, in order to response to mitigate the adverse effects from climate change on agricultural total factor productivity, local governments should continue to increase financial support for the local agricultural economic development, because this action could be beneficial for the related stakeholders in improving agricultural total factor productivity. Summing up, our evidence study would provide an important basic theory basis in terms of increasing agricultural total factor productivity and promoting regional agricultural economic development in China.