Demystifying the Mystery Room

被引:0
|
作者
Wenmackers, Sylvia [1 ]
机构
[1] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Inst Philosophy, Ctr Log & Philosophy Sci, Leuven, Belgium
来源
THOUGHT-A JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY | 2019年 / 8卷 / 02期
关键词
Bayesianism; de se beliefs; observer selection; probability; sample space; SLEEPING-BEAUTY;
D O I
10.1002/tht3.408
中图分类号
B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号
01 ; 0101 ;
摘要
The Mystery Room problem is a close variant of the Mystery Bag scenario (due to Titelbaum). It is argued here that dealing with this problem requires no revision of the Bayesian formalism, since there exists a solution to this problem in which indexicals or demonstratives play no essential role. The solution does require labels, which are internal to the probabilistic model. While there needs to be a connection between at least one label and one indexical or demonstrative, that connection is external to the probabilistic model that is used to determine the relevant conditional probability; hence, it does not complicate the update procedure.
引用
收藏
页码:86 / 95
页数:10
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