Bayesianism;
de se beliefs;
observer selection;
probability;
sample space;
SLEEPING-BEAUTY;
D O I:
10.1002/tht3.408
中图分类号:
B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号:
01 ;
0101 ;
摘要:
The Mystery Room problem is a close variant of the Mystery Bag scenario (due to Titelbaum). It is argued here that dealing with this problem requires no revision of the Bayesian formalism, since there exists a solution to this problem in which indexicals or demonstratives play no essential role. The solution does require labels, which are internal to the probabilistic model. While there needs to be a connection between at least one label and one indexical or demonstrative, that connection is external to the probabilistic model that is used to determine the relevant conditional probability; hence, it does not complicate the update procedure.
机构:
Univ Birmingham, Sch Publ Policy, Int Dev Dept, Birmingham, W Midlands, EnglandUniv Birmingham, Sch Publ Policy, Int Dev Dept, Birmingham, W Midlands, England
Rakodi, Carole
Kalabamu, Faustin
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h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Botswana, Dept Architecture & Planning, Gaborone, BotswanaUniv Birmingham, Sch Publ Policy, Int Dev Dept, Birmingham, W Midlands, England