Measuring the Complexity of Mega Projects with Markov Chain-Entropy Model

In this study, the Markov chain is used to understand the uncertainty and dynamic evolution characteristics for mega projects, and entropy theory is adopted to quantify the level of complexity; thus a Markov chain-entropy measurement model is established to measure the complexity of mega projects. Markov chains can be used to describe the processes, and entropy can be used to quantify the complexity. The results show that the complexity of mega projects includes six dimensions of organizational complexity, task complexity, technical complexity, environmental complexity, institutional complexity, and social complexity; also complexity has the characteristics of the structure, uncertainty, and dynamic. This research can reveal the relationship between the macro-state and micro-state of mega projects and measure the complexity level. It is helpful for managers to conduct predictive decision-making and control the complexity for mega projects.