Vulnerability of subalpine fir species to climate change: using species distribution modeling to assess the future efficiency of current protected areas in the Korean Peninsula

To facilitate the adaptive management of subalpine ecosystems in the Korean Peninsula under climate change conditions, we identified the climatic factors that determine the distribution of two dominant subalpine firs (Abies koreana and A. nephrolepis). We also identified sustainable and vulnerable habitats for these species inside and outside of current protected areas under climate change scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, and the amount of precipitation in the warmest quarter were the most important climatic variables that determined the distribution of these two Abies species. Potential habitats for A. koreana and A. nephrolepis were predicted to decrease to 3.3% and 36.4% of the current areas due to climate change, irrespective of whether inside or outside the protected areas. It was predicted that the potential habitats for A. nephrolepis would be maintained in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, and sustainable potential habitats outside the protected areas were predicted in central parts of the Korean Peninsula. The potential habitats for A. koreana were predicted to disappear from Is. Jeju and shrink significantly in the Korean Peninsula. These results suggest that, in central parts of the Korean Peninsula, revision of protected areas would be effective in preserving A. nephrolepis under conditions of future climate change. In contrast, revision of protected areas would be insufficient to conserve A. koreana due to their high vulnerability and limited populations. Active management is required to ensure the survival of A. koreana under future climate conditions.