A new feature selection algorithm and composite neural network for electricity price forecasting

In a competitive electricity market, the forecasting of energy prices is an important activity for all the market participants either for developing bidding strategies or for making investment decisions. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day ahead prediction of electricity price, which is a complex signal with nonlinear, volatile and time dependent behavior. Our forecast strategy includes a new two stage feature selection algorithm, a composite neural network (CNN) and a few auxiliary predictors. The feature selection algorithm has two filtering stages to remove irrelevant and redundant candidate inputs, respectively. This algorithm is based on mutual information (MI) criterion and selects the input variables of the CNN among a large set of candidate inputs. The CNN is composed of a few neural networks (NN) with a new data flow among its building blocks. The CNN is the forecast engine of the proposed strategy. A kind of cross-validation technique is also presented to fine-tune the adjustable parameters of the feature selection algorithm and CNN. Moreover, the proposed price forecast strategy is equipped with a few auxiliary predictors to enrich the candidate set of inputs of the forecast engine. The whole proposed strategy is examined on the PJM, Spanish and Californian electricity markets and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.