Recession and fossil fuel dependence undermine climate policy commitments

Knowledge on the determinants of more or less ambitious climate policies on the country level is still limited, especially with regards to the 2015 Paris Agreement to mitigate global climate change. This is a significant knowledge gap, especially given the review of many contributions to the Paris Agreement due in 2021. I analyse why some countries make insufficient pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, while other countries pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation goals. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the study finds that economic recession, dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation, and levels of development are strong predictors of insufficient climate policies. These results are worrisome in the context of the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the continued predominance of fossil fuels in the world's energy mix.