DSM-5 and the 'Psychosis Risk Syndrome': no different than any other diagnostic test

The "Psychosis Risk Syndrome" is essentially a diagnostic prediction, and hence subject to the normal standards for evaluating a diagnostic test. We describe four key standards for evaluating a diagnostic test and demonstrate that none are currently met by our state-of-the-art techniques for assessing the risk of psychosis. Under these circumstances, the adoption of the "Psychosis Risk Syndrome" by DSM-5 would probably lead to unintended, but adverse, consequences.