External validation and extension of the Early Prediction of Functional Outcome after Stroke (EPOS) prediction model for upper limb outcome 3 months after stroke

Objective The 'Early Prediction of Functional Outcome after Stroke' (EPOS) model was developed to predict the presence of at least some upper limb capacity (Action Research Am Test [ARAT] >= 10/57) at 6 months based on assessments on days 2, 5 and 9 after stroke. External validation of the model is the next step towards clinical implementation. The objective here is to externally validate the EPOS model for upper limb outcome 3 months poststroke in Switzerland and extend the model using an ARAT cut-off at 32 points. Methods Data from two prospective longitudinal cohort studies including first-ever stroke patients admitted to a Swiss stroke center were analyzed. The presence of finger extension and shoulder abduction was measured on days 1 and 8 poststroke in Cohort 1, and on days 3 and 9 in Cohort 2. Upper limb capacity was measured 3 months poststroke. Discrimination (area under the curve; AUC) and calibration obtained with the model were determined. Results In Cohort 1 (N = 39, median age 74 years), the AUC on day 1 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.61, 0.95) and 0.96 (95%CI 0.90, 1.00) on day 8, using the model of day 5. In Cohort 2 (N = 85, median age 69 years), the AUC was 0.96 (95%CI 0.93, 0.99) on day 3 and 0.89 (95% CI 0.80, 0.98) on day 9. Applying a 32-point ARAT cut-off resulted in an AUC ranging from 0.82 (95%CI 0.68, 0.95; Cohort 1, day 1) to 0.95 (95%CI 0.87, 1.00; Cohort 1, day 8). Conclusions The EPOS model was successfully validated in first-ever stroke patients with mild-to-moderate neurological impairments, who were independent before their stroke. Now, its impact on clinical practice should be investigated in this population. Testing the model's performance in severe (recurrent) strokes and stratification of patients using the ARAT 32-point cut-off is required to enhance the model's generalizability and potential clinical impact.