A coming boom in commercial shipping? The potential for rapid growth of noise from commercial ships by 2030

Ocean noise levels are thought to be increasing as a result of major growth in global shipping activity, but data quantifying those changes are limited in space and time. As an alternative approach, this study examines the current and future maximum noise capacity of three segments of the global commercial shipping fleet: container ships, oil tankers, and bulk carriers. It shows that continued growth in the number of ships, the quantity of goods carried and the distances traveled could increase the maximum noise capacity of the global shipping fleet by up to a factor of 1.9 by 2030, with major growth in particular in the container and bulk carrier segments. Thus, in the absence of operational or manufacturing changes to such ships, the contribution of commercial shipping to ambient ocean noise levels can be expected to dramatically increase. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.