Risk Assessment of IT Projects Based on Hidden Markov Model

This paper presents hidden Markov model (HMM) for risk assessment of information technology (IT) projects. HMM has been extensively used for pattern recognition and classification problem solving because of its proven suitability for modeling dynamic systems. However, the ideal of using HMM for risk assessment is rarely considered in the past researches. Firstly, we build an IT project risk assessment index system. Secondly, according to the index system of IT projects, four HMMs are built based on four different risk classes. Finally, we train HMM to search for the risk behavioral data pattern from the past dataset and test the testing projects. Computer simulations and numeric experiments verify the feasibility and efficacy of the HMM in IT projects risk assessment, which has broad application prospect.