Productivity Estimation in Welding by Monte Carlo Method

The aim of this article is to analyze the feasibility of using Monte Carlo method to estimate productivity in industrial pipes welding of carbon steel based on small samples. The study was carried out through an analysis of a reference sample containing productivity data of 160 welded joints by SMAW process in REDUC (Duque de Caxias Refinery), using ControlTub 5.3 software. From these data was taken at random samples with, respectively, 10, 15 and 20 elements and were performed simulations by Monte Carlo method. Comparing the results of the sample with 160 elements and the data generated by simulation is observed that good results can be obtained by using Monte Carlo method in estimating productivity of industrial welding. On the other hand in Brazilian construction industry the value of productivity average is normally used as a productivity indicator and is based on historical data from other projects collected and measured only after project completion, which is a limitation. This article presents a tool for evaluation of the implementation in real time, enabling adjustments in estimates and monitoring productivity during the project. Similarly, in biddings, budgets and schedule estimations, the use of this tool could enable the adoption of other estimative different from of the average productivity, which is commonly used and as an alternative are suggested three criteria: optimistic, average and pessimistic productivity.