RISK ANALYSIS OF THE BRENNER BASE TUNNEL PROJECT

In the case of complex and innovative structural systems, proper modelling of uncertainty holds a key role in the design procedure. Uncertainties, either of aleatory or epistemic nature, stemming from materials, processes, mechanical, traffic and financial models or even human perception towards the various project components, have to be treated effectively in an integrated design framework. Over the last years, through a Risk Analysis and Management approach, realisation of intricate and sensitive structures has been made possible. In the present work, some aspects of the Risk Analysis of the Brenner Base Tunnel (Brenner Basistunnel - Galleria di Base del Brennero), one of the most important construction projects today in Europe, are being presented. The complexity of the project is being explained through evidence from the actual work in progress. Methods to assess and quantify risk amount in infrastructure projects are being discussed. Finally an analogy to structural analysis is proposed for considering a risk analysis under its global "stress field" of cost, time and risk.