A New Probability Prediction Method for Key Subsystems of Machining Center

A New Probability Prediction method is proposed for the key subsystems of Machining Center (MC). Firstly, the Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) method is used for finding out the key subsystems which affect the Machining Center reliability most seriously. Then, the empirical models of key subsystems and the Machining Center are built based on the fault time. Under the assumption that the MC is a Series System, the posterior probability of the key subsystems is obtained by Bayesian th eory. The case example shows that the fault probability of key subsystems is changing as the MC fault probability changes. At a given time t, the fault probability of key subsystems can be calculated by the empirical models of key subsystems and the MC.