The measured effect magnitude of co-morbidities on burn injury mortality

Introduction: The ability to better prognosticate burn injury outcome is challenging and historically, most center use the Baux or revised Baux score to help prognosticate burn outcome, however, the weighted contribution of comorbidity on burn mortality has traditionally not been accounted for nor adequately studied. We therefore sought to determine the effect of comorbidities, using the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) on burn mortality. Methods: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of comorbidities on burn injury mortality as determined by the LA50 (lethal TBSA burn at which 50% of the cohort will succumb from the burn injury) in a retrospective analysis of patients admitted to a regional burn center from 2002 to 2012. Independent variables analyzed included basic demographics, burn mechanism, presence of inhalation injury, TBSA (total body surface area), length of hospital stay, and pre-existing comorbidities. Bivariate analysis was performed and logistic regression modeling using significant variables was utilized to estimate odds of death. Results: 7640 patients were included in this study. Overall survival rate was 96%. 40% of our burn cohort had at least one comorbidity. There was a linear increase in the likelihood of death with an increase in CCI. The logistic regression model for mortality outcomes identified four statistically significant variables: age, TBSA, inhalational injury and the presence of comorbidities (OR = 1.59 for each 1 point increase in CCI; 95% CI 1.44-1.77). The unadjusted LA50 was 53% for the entire cohort. Partial adjustment multivariate regression controlling for burn mechanism and inhalation injury only, produced a slight reduction in LA50 for the 0-18 and 19-64 age categories to 76% and 48% TBSA, respectively, but a significant decre 65 years age group with a reduced LA50 to 20% TBSA (p < 0.001). After full adjustment for all significant covariates, including comorbidities, the independent magnitude of effect of comorbidities on the LA50 was evident in the <65 cohort. The full adjustment showed a LA50 decreased to 61% and 43% TBSA, respectively in the 0-18 and >18-65 age groups respectively (p < 0.001), however, in the >65 years age cohort there was no change in the LA50. Conclusion: Preexisting comorbidities have a significant effect on burn injury mortality in all age groups, particularly the younger burn population. The measured effect of comorbidities in the >65 yr age cohort was mitigated by the co-linearity between age and comorbidities. The inclusion of CCI is imperative so as to better prognosticate burn outcome and help guide expectations and resource utilization, particularly in the younger burn cohort. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.