Extent of recent fire-induced losses of ponderosa pine forests of Arizona and New USA

Land management legacies coupled with climate change have led to shifts in western ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest structure and fire regimes. A growing body of evidence suggests that under increasing area burned at high-severity, warming and drought, ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to conversion to alternate forest types or non-forest vegetation. However, the extent and direction of recent fire-induced changes in southwestern US ponderosa pine forests have not been subject to region-wide evaluation. Here, we assess recent fire effects in ponderosa pine forests using long-term repeated samples of stand composition and structure from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, combined with metrics of satellite-derived burn severity (predicted Composite Burn Index, CBI; and differenced normalized burn ratio, dNBR). We compiled and analyzed FIA plots dominated by ponderosa pine and associated species within the southwestern states of Arizona and New Mexico to quantify regional trends for ponderosa pine (e.g., forest losses or gains), link changes to wildfire severity, and characterize vegetation shifts.Among 685 plots sampled three times between 1996 and 2017, 26% of plots burned at least once, with more than half of these burning at moderate to high severity. Plots that burned within the study period exhibited a net loss of 46% of ponderosa pine trees, but unburned plots also exhibited a net decline of 11%. While all tree size classes exhibited greater losses than gains, tree size was a positive predictor of post-fire survival. Satellite-derived burn severity (predicted CBI) was strongly related to tree mortality and shifts toward alternate post-fire vege-tation types. Severely burned stands exhibited trajectories toward non-forest vegetation with high dominance by resprouting species, particularly Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii). These findings contribute to an emerging understanding of the potential ecological outcomes of growing forest vulnerability to changing climate and disturbance regimes. Methods employed herein offer scalable opportu-nities to quantify changes across forest biomes using long-term monitoring data. As importantly, our findings inform regional and local land management efforts to sustain these valued forest types in an era of change. We highlight two key themes for management to promote the long-term persistence of ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern US: restoration of low-severity fire regimes and retention of large, fire-resistant trees.