A Logistic Forecasting Model of Financial Crisis for Listed Companies

This paper chooses the listed companies with special treatment as the Mark of financial crisis, selects 104 ST and* ST companies in the year of 2009 as basic samples, and 104 non-ST companies as paired samples, with a total size up to 208 samples. This paper regards the time of financial crisis as T, utilizes the data of sample listed companies at years of T-1, T-2 and T-3, and employs statistical analysis tool of SPSS 17.0 for research. This paper uses statistical method to screen nine indicators as independent variables to build models, and constructs logistic regression model; finally, this paper applies this model to examine the 208 sample companies. In addition, this article expands the sample size from the horizontal and vertical aspects, establishes three compared models, and chooses the best. This model has some reference for the assessment of bank credit crisis and corporate crisis management.