The Effect of Foreclosures on Crime in Indianapolis, 2003-2008

Objective Until recently, few studies have examined the relationship between home foreclosures and crime. Foreclosures are one major source of neighborhood instability and can be expected to affect crime from several theoretical perspectives. Some recent research has found conflicting results on whether foreclosures cause crime. Method This study examines whether foreclosures are a robust predictor of crime and whether the effect of foreclosures on crime varies across neighborhood contexts. We estimate fixed-effects negative binomial models using geocoded Indianapolis foreclosure and crime data for 2003-2008 to predict crime counts in 1,000 feet x 1,000 feet square grid cells. Result Foreclosures exhibit consistent positive effects on indices of overall, property, and violent UCR-reported (where UCR is Uniform Crime Report) offenses in a cell and rape, aggravated assault, and burglary counts. In addition, foreclosures had greater effects on reported UCR crimes in stable neighborhoods, especially those with more owner-occupied homes. Conclusion Foreclosures were a robust predictor of crime in the current study.