MODEL OF THE OPERATION PROCESS OF AIRCRAFT IN THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Correct operation of technical facilities ensures uninterrupted performance of tasks. Therefore, reliable description of operation process is an important issue that enables proper control of its processes, as well as to ensure and maintain required operation level. In this case, appropriate mathematical methods and tools are applied, which provide important knowledge, not only to persons responsible for carrying out orders, but also to the logistical component responsible for securing them. In many situations, the processes of mathematical analysis of the operation process are hampered by traditional method of processing and recording documentation. Modern systems that enable to obtain accurate and multidimensional information on the activities carried out by technical facilities are implemented in companies gradually, sometimes even not at all. Although such traditional records seem to be an obstacle to use forecasting mathematical tools, this article presents a mathematical description of aircraft operations based on such information. ARIMA model was proposed, which allowed not only for short-term forecasting of future flights, but also for current evaluation of operations, possibility to control and coordinate Hight schedules, especially in terms of maintenance and repairs. Such information enabled to improve implementation process of performed tasks, including sustainable use of human and technical resources.