Quantifying Probabilistic Uncertainty in Smart Grid Co-Simulation

Co-simulation is a promising approach for the development of cyber-physical systems like smart grids, but the inherent uncertainty of simulation models is a crucial problem. Worst-case estimations of uncertain simulation scenarios may be obtained rather easily. However, the common demand for optimization usually requires probabilistic information about the analyzed system. The paper at hand presents an approach for the quantification of probabilistic uncertainty in arbitrary smart grid co-simulation scenarios. A software prototype has been implemented as an extension to the co-simulation framework MOSAIK.