Has US inflation really become harder to forecast?

被引：4
|
作者：
Lanne, Markku [1 ]
Luoto, Jani
机构：
[1] Univ Helsinki, Dept Polit & Econ Studies, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
来源：
ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2012年 / 115卷 / 03期
关键词：
Inflation forecast; Noncausal time series; Phillips curve;
D O I：
10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.088
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Since the mid-1980s, Phillips curve forecasts of US inflation have been inferior to those of a conventional causal autoregression. However, little change in forecast accuracy is detected against the benchmark of a noncausal autoregression, more accurately characterizing US inflation dynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码：383 / 386
页数：4
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