Future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Jordanian industries

Most, i.e. 85%, of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Jordan emanate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. The industrial sector consumed 23.3% of the total national fuel consumption for heat and electric-power generation in 1999. The CO2 emissions from energy use in manufacturing processes represent 12.1% of the total national CO2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is also released as a result of the calcining of carbonates during the manufacture of cement and iron. Electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy, in 1999 represented 45% of total fuel used for heat and power nationally. Heavy fuel oil and diesel oil represented 46% and 7%, respectively, of all energy used by industry. Scenarios for future energy-demands and the emissions of gaseous pollutants, including GHGs, have been predicted for the industrial sector. For these, the development of a baseline scenario relied on historical data concerning consumption, major industries' outputs, as well as upon pertinent published governmental policies and plans. Possible mitigation options that could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions are assessed, with the aim of achieving a 10% reduction by 2010, compared with the baseline scenario. Many viable CO2 emission mitigation measures have been identified for the industrial sector, and some of these can be considered as attractive opportunities due to the low financial investments required and short pay back periods. These mitigation options have been selected on the basis of low GHG emission rates and expert judgement as to their viability for wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. The predictions show that the use of more efficient lighting and motors, advanced energy systems and more effective boilers and furnaces will result in a significant reduction in the rates of GHG emissions at an initial cost of between 30 and 90 US$ t(-1) of CO2 release avoided. However, most of these measures have a negative cost per ton of CO2 reduced, indicating short pay-back periods for the capital investments needed. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.