Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation: Initialization and Improved Prediction

被引：15

作者：

Xue, Yongkang ^{[1
]}

Diallo, Ismaila ^{[1
]}

Boone, Aaron A. ^{[2
]}

Yao, Tandong ^{[3
]}

Zhang, Yang ^{[4
]}

Zeng, Xubin ^{[5
]}

Neelin, J. David ^{[1
]}

Lau, William K. M. ^{[6
]}

Pan, Yan ^{[4
]}

Liu, Ye ^{[1
,7
]}

Pan, Xiaoduo ^{[3
]}

Tang, Qi ^{[8
]}

Oevelen, Peter J. van ^{[9
]}

Sato, Tomonori ^{[10
]}

Koo, Myung-Seo ^{[11
]}

Materia, Stefano ^{[12
]}

Shi, Chunxiang ^{[13
]}

Yang, Jing ^{[14
]}

Ardilouze, Constantin ^{[2
]}

Lin, Zhaohui ^{[15
]}

Qi, Xin ^{[14
]}

Nakamura, Tetsu ^{[10
]}

Saha, Subodh K. ^{[16
]}

Senan, Retish ^{[17
]}

Takaya, Yuhei ^{[18
]}

Wang, Hailan ^{[19
]}

Zhang, Hongliang ^{[20
]}

Zhao, Mei ^{[21
]}

Nayak, Hara Prasad ^{[1
]}

Chen, Qiuyu ^{[1
,4
]}

Feng, Jinming ^{[15
]}

Brunke, Michael A. ^{[5
]}

Fan, Tianyi ^{[14
]}

Hong, Songyou ^{[22
,23
,24
]}

Nobre, Paulo ^{[25
]}

Peano, Daniele ^{[12
]}

Qin, Yi ^{[26
,27
]}

Vitart, Frederic ^{[17
]}

Xie, Shaocheng ^{[8
]}

Zhan, Yanling ^{[15
]}

Klocke, Daniel ^{[28
]}

Leung, Ruby ^{[7
]}

Li, Xin ^{[3
]}

Ek, Michael ^{[29
]}

Guo, Weidong ^{[4
]}

Balsamo, Gianpaolo ^{[17
]}

Bao, Qing ^{[30
]}

Chou, Sin Chan ^{[25
]}

de Rosnay, Patricia ^{[17
]}

Lin, Yanluan ^{[27
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[2] Univ Toulouse, CNRM, Meteo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

[3] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Beijing, Peoples R China

[4] Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China

[5] Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA

[6] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD USA

[7] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA

[8] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA USA

[9] George Mason Univ, Int GEWEX Project Off, Fairfax, VA USA

[10] Hokkaido Univ, Sapporo, Japan

[11] Korea Inst Atmospher Predict Syst, Seoul, South Korea

[12] Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Climate Simulat & Predict, Bologna, Italy

[13] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Informat Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

[14] Beijing Normal Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China

[15] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China

[16] Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Pune, India

[17] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England

[18] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Japan

[19] Natl Ctr Environm Predict, College Pk, MD USA

[20] Chinese Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

[21] Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[22] Korea Inst Atmospher Predict Syst, Seoul, South Korea

[23] NOAA, ESRL, Boulder, CO USA

[24] Univ Colorado Boulder, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA

[25] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil

[26] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA USA

[27] Tsinghua Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China

[28] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[29] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO USA

[30] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China

[31] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China

[32] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD USA

[33] Yonsei Univ, Seoul, South Korea

[34] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangzhou, Peoples R China

[35] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Yokosuka, Japan

[36] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing, Peoples R China

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2022年 / 103卷 / 12期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Atmosphere; Atmosphere-land interaction; Ensembles; Numerical weather prediction; forecasting; General circulation models; Model initialization; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; DECADAL VARIABILITY; SOIL-MOISTURE; CLIMATE; DROUGHT; PROJECT; SNOWPACK; IMPACTS; ASIA;

D O I：

10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0270.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface -temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land-atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the "Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction" (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global "hotspot" regions identified here; the ensemble means in some "hotspots" produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

引用

页码：E2756 / E2767

页数：12

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