Join to Prosper? An Empirical Analysis of EU Membership and Economic Growth

We explore whether EU membership has led to faster economic growth. Using different estimation strategies, different time periods, different country samples, and different datasets, we are unable to demonstrate the presence of a membership growth premium. This may reflect that GDP data are too noisy and/or causal identification too complicated, in which case we should remain agnostic about the EU's growth impact. Alternatively, it may reflect that EU membership simply has no effect on economic growth. Either way, these findings urge strong caution about one of EU membership's key alleged benefits: greater economic prosperity.