Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap

被引：2

作者：

Burlon, Lorenzo ^{[1
]}

D'Imperio, Paolo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] European Cent Bank, DG Monetary Policy, Rome, Italy

[2] Sapienza Univ Rome, Rome, Italy

来源：

JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS | 2020年 / 64卷

关键词：

Output gap; Potential output; Reliability; DSGE modelling; Bayesian estimation; Euro area; ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL; MONETARY-POLICY; INFLATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103191

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The paper provides real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap, based on a standard medium scale DSGE model estimated recursively with Bayesian techniques over the period 1985q1-2019q2. Unlike measures of output gap obtained by means of statistical filtering techniques, realtime DSGE-based estimates are remarkably stable and hence are less prone to ex-post revisions, which implies a higher reliability over time of model-based measures of the output gap.

引用

页数：19

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