A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

被引：1
|
作者：
Li Xiao-juan [1 ]
Weng Xiang-yu [1 ]
Xie Ding-sheng [1 ]
Liang Jian [1 ]
机构：
[1] Guangzhou Cent Meteorol Observ, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China
来源：
JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY | 2012年 / 18卷 / 01期
关键词：
weather forecast; binomial prediction model; China-landfalling TCs; intensity and frequency;
D O I：
10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.01.012
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones (hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008, correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature (SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction. A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors. Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.
引用
收藏
页码：108 / 112
页数：5
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