Temporal models for the episodic volcanism of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty quantification

After the large-scale event of Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (similar to 15 ka B.P.), intense and mostly explosive volcanism has occurred within and along the boundaries of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Eruptions occurred closely spaced in time, over periods from a few centuries to a few millennia, and were alternated with periods of quiescence lasting up to several millennia. Often events also occurred closely in space, thus generating a cluster of events. This study had two main objectives: (1) to describe the uncertainty in the geologic record by using a quantitative model and (2) to develop, based on the uncertainty assessment, a long-term subdomain specific temporal probability model that describes the temporal and spatial eruptive behavior of the caldera. In particular, the study adopts a space-time doubly stochastic nonhomogeneous Poisson-type model with a local self-excitation feature able to generate clustering of events which are consistent with the reconstructed record of Campi Flegrei. Results allow the evaluation of similarities and differences between the three epochs of activity as well as to derive eruptive base rate of the caldera and its capacity to generate clusters of events. The temporal probability model is also used to investigate the effect of the most recent eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) in a possible reactivation of the caldera and to estimate the time to the next eruption under different volcanological and modeling assumptions.