Mexican priority bamboo species under scenarios of climate change

Background: Worldwide only 45 bamboo species are considered economically important. Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata are two bamboo species that are economically important in different areas of Mexico. Question: How climate change is affecting the distribution of these species and where are the priority areas that should be considered for conservation refuges. Studied species: We consider Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata, both endemic to Mexico, as potentially economic priority species. Both are used in rural communities for different purposes. Both inhabit tropical sub-deciduous, deciduous and dry oak forests, and are extracted exclusively from wild populations. Study site and years of study: Mexico and Central America. Data considered have different temporality depending on the source of collections and databases; localities were recorded until 2015. Methods: The potential geographic distributions of Guadua inermis and Otatea acuminata were modeled to investigate the possible effects of climate change under different scenarios and to identify their potential future distributions and potential plantation management. Results: Our results showed a likely reduction of the current potential distributions when both species are projected into future scenarios of climate change. G. inermis will lose between 9.5 and 42.3 % of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Meanwhile, O. acuminata would lose between 14.2 and 22.3 % of its current distribution under the same climate scenarios. Conclusions: Fortunately, even with the potential loss of geographic distribution, both species are likely to remain in some suitable areas where the species will grow and could be used with appropriate management.