Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR. © 2021 The Author(s)