The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of a territorial military conflict. The Intraregional Trade Disruption from War Simulator (ITDW-Simulator) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of the military conflict. The model suggests two primary indicators and four secondary indicators. The final trade suffocation index ((TS-Index)) and the final investment desgrowth from war function (-delta(w)) measure trade disruption's potential impact on international trade patterns and economic development. The agriculture exports, industrial and manufacturing exports, service exports, and FDI flows capture the trade and investment interdependency. The model investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukraine military conflict on the bilateral trade and investment between the Russian Federation and the European Union. (C) 2022 The Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.