Linking long-term temperature variability to population density in Andorra (Central Pyrenees)

Correlation of long-term temperature variability and population density was investigated in an isolated mountain environment case study for the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries period. Andorra (Central Pyrenees) was chosen as a case study location due to its harsh environmental conditions and to its historical politically neutral position. Reconstructed temperatures for the eighteenth century, based on dendrochronological data, show strong statistical correlations with death inventories (rs = -0.359, p < 0.001), reflecting an increase in mortality at lower temperatures. These conclusions were extended to the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, using volcanic activity data in order to compensate for a scarcity of dendrochronological data covering this period. Indirect temperature effects related to vegetation growth and crop yield have also been found. Therefore, this study demonstrates the historical influence of climate change on population density in harsh mountain areas.