Global Dynamics of Sun-induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence from 2007 to 2016: Lead Time Predictability and Large Scale Drivers

Satellite based sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) makes it possible for the first time to probe plant photosynthesis worldwide, and can be hence deemed as a direct proxy to measure the terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). Here we investigated the predictability of SIF at the global scale to figure out the issue that how far ahead of time the dynamic change of SIF can be caught. By considering the impact of water stress and climate variability on such prediction, we found the predictable lead time reached up to 6 months in specific regions. This issue was addressed by enforcing three products into standard statistical analysis. We used the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 Satellite (GOME-2) retrieved SIF for investigation. The water stress and the climate variability was respectively measured in this paper with remotely sensed surface soil moisture and the large-scale oscillation indices provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The investigation on the predictability of SIF can help to provide more reliable forecast for GPP related agricultural applications, and are expected to be used for for early warning systems of agricultural hazards and forecast of climate impact on plant ecosystems.