Inexact stochastic dynamic programming method and application to water resources management in Shandong China under uncertainty

被引：17
|
作者：
Gu, J. J. [1 ]
Guo, P. [2 ,3 ]
Huang, G. H. [4 ,5 ]
机构：
[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Inst Ecol Simulat & Urban Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[2] China Agr Univ, Ctr Agr Water Res China, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
[3] Univ No British Columbia, Environm Sci & Engn Program, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
[4] Univ Regina, Environm Syst Engn Program, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
[5] North China Elect Power Univ, Energy & Environm Res Ctr, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
来源：
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT | 2013年 / 27卷 / 05期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金; 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划);
关键词：
Dynamic; Joint probability; Multistage; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Water resources; SYSTEM; MODEL; OPTIMIZATION; FORECASTS; RISK;
D O I：
10.1007/s00477-012-0657-y
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
In this study, an interval parameter multistage joint-probability programming (IMJP) approach has been developed to deal with water resources allocation under uncertainty. The IMJP can be used not only to deal with uncertainties in terms of joint-probability and intervals, but also to examine the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints in the context of multistage. The proposed model can handle the economic expenditure caused by regional water shortage and flood control. The model can also reflect the related dynamic changes in the multi-stage cases and the system safety under uncertainty. The developed method is applied to a case study of water resources allocation in Shandong, China, under multistage, multi-reservoir and multi-industry. The violating reservoir constraints are addressed in terms of joint-probability. Different risk levels of constraint lead to different planning. The obtained results can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs under various economic, environment and system reliability scenarios.
引用
收藏
页码：1207 / 1219
页数：13
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