Probabilistic Risk and Control Analysis of Self-circulation Disaster Crisis Evolution Chain

The disaster crisis evolution system composed of the original disaster and its derivative crises always shows the properties of complexity and continuity. In order to understand the essence of the crisis evolution mechanism, the configurable attributes of the crisis system with the formation of the self-circulation crisis evolution chain (SCCEC) are analyzed. The components and the elements of the SCCEC are given and mathematical model is established for describing the occurrence performance of the individual crisis in the chain. The control factors are presented and its influence on the SCCEC is obtained according to the probabilistic risk analysis. The results show that the properties of the SCCEC, such as the inducing probability between the crises, the number of the crisis in the chain and the ability of self-degradation or self-increase, are the crucial factors to determine the evolving rules of the SCCEC. In addition, the risk could be reduced to a certain degree through improving the control capability. And the control factor, which could reflect the effect of the intervening measure from the government, plays an important role in the probability risk management.