EVALUATING THE DEGREE OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION OF ROMANIA IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BY MEANS OF THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES

In this study we analyzed the synchronization of business cycles in Romania with different groups of countries of the EU known as EU 12, EU 16, EU 25, EU 27. In order to determine the synchronization of business cycles, we use both the correlation coefficients among business cycles and the concordance index. The corrected concordance index of Harding and Pagan shows that business cycles between Romania and EU 12, respectively EU 16 present a very weak, insignificant negative concordance while the concordance between EU 25 and EU 27 is positive, but still very weak and insignificant. Therefore, the time lags when the business cycles of Romania are in the same evolution stage as the business cycles of EU are very short. Romania's participation at this point to the Economic and Monetary Union would be inadequate because the monetary policy decisions taken by the Central European Bank wouldn't be appropriate for Romania as well.