Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999-2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy. Starting from the base year, final energy consumption distributed by energy forms and consumption sectors, the future energy and electricity demand has been projected according to three different scenarios reflecting the possible future demographic, socioeconomic and technological development of the country. These scenarios are constructed to cover a plausible range, in which future evolution factors affecting energy demand are expected to lie. The first is a high economy scenario (HS) representing the reference case, which is characterized by high gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (average annual about 6%) and moderate improved technologies in the various consumption sectors. The second is an energy efficiency scenario (ES), which is identical to HS in all main parameters except these relating to the efficiency improvement and conservation measures. Here, high technology improvement and more effective conservation measures in all consumption sectors are proposed and the role of solar to substitute fossil energy for heating purposes is considered effectively. The third is a low economy scenario (LS) with low GDP growth rate (average annual about 3.5%) and less technology improvement in the consumption sectors. As a consequence, the improvement in the energy efficiency is low and the influence of conservation measures is less effective. Starting from about 10.5 mtoe final energy in the base year, the analysis shows that the projected energy demand will grow annually at average rates of 5%, 4.5% and 3% for the HS, ES and LS, respectively. Comparing to the HS, the conservation measures and technology improvement in the ES would save ca. 0.8 mtoe in 2010, 2.3 mtoe in 2020 and 5.7 mtoe in 2030. The final electricity demand of about 16.7 TWh in the base year will grow annually at average rates of 5.5%, 5% and 3.4% for the HS, ES and LS, respectively. During the study period 1999-2030 the annual electricity per capita will increase from about 1000 kWh to 2800, 2500 and 1500 kWh for the HS, ES and LS, respectively. The final energy intensity(1) will decrease continuously from about 0.73 kgoe/US$ in the base year to 0.48 kgoe/US$, 0.42 kgoe/US$ and 0.67 kgoe/US$(2) for the HS, ES and LS, respectively in the year 2030. These values indicate intensive final energy consumption in Syria compared to developing countries. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.