Environmental policy-making for Persian Gulf oil pollution:A future study based on system dynamics modeling

Environmental degradation due to economic activities is a key challenge facing sustainable development. The fossil fuel production sector is a very polluting industry. In this research, the future trends of pollution accumulation in the region due to direct/indirect oily discharge into the semi-enclosed area of the Persian Gulf are studied. The purpose of the study was not only to alert policy-makers about potential future threats in the region but also to conduct a trial to develop potential solutions to these problems. Four different environmental cases were studied via the principle of system dynamic modeling simulation. The cases consisted of three situations: relaxed, simple policy, and restricted policies. The results show that a rational environmental policy imposing penalties on producing firms is very effective in mitigating environmental pollution. However, while these penalties are not powerful enough to discourage or reduce the highly profitable oil production in the region, they may prevent the disposal of pollutants harmful to the marine environment to some degree.