Bridging the gap between science and decision making

被引:86
|
作者
von Winterfeldt, Detlof [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ So Calif, Viterbi Sch Engn, Daniel J Epstein Dept Ind & Syst Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA
[2] Univ So Calif, Sol Price Sch Publ Policy, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA
关键词
decision analysis; risk communication; science communication; risk analysis;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.1213532110
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
All decisions, whether they are personal, public, or business-related, are based on the decision maker's beliefs and values. Science can and should help decision makers by shaping their beliefs. Unfortunately, science is not easily accessible to decision makers, and scientists often do not understand decision makers' information needs. This article presents a framework for bridging the gap between science and decision making and illustrates it with two examples. The first example is a personal health decision. It shows how a formal representation of the beliefs and values can reflect scientific inputs by a physician to combine with the values held by the decision maker to inform a medical choice. The second example is a public policy decision about managing a potential environmental hazard. It illustrates how controversial beliefs can be reflected as uncertainties and informed by science to make better decisions. Both examples use decision analysis to bridge science and decisions. The conclusions suggest that this can be a helpful process that requires skills in both science and decision making.
引用
收藏
页码:14055 / 14061
页数:7
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