Predictive Value of the Nomogram Model in Patients With Megaprosthetic Failure Around the Knee: A Retrospective Analysis

Background: Megaprosthetic replacement is one of the main methods for reconstructing mega bone defects after tumor resection. However, the incidences of complication associated with tumor prostheses were 5-10 times higher than that of conventional total knee arthroplasty. The objective of this study is to establish and validate a nomogram model which can assist doctors and patients in predicting the prosthetic survival rates. Methods: Data on cancer patients treated with tumor prosthesis replacements at our institution from November 2001 to November 2017 were collected. The potential risk factors which were well-studied and shown to be associated with megaprosthetic failure were analyzed. A nomogram model was established using independent risk factors screened out by multivariate regression analysis. The concordance index and calibration curve were selected for internal validation of the predictive accuracy of nomogram. Results: The 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year prosthetic survival rates were 92.8%, 88.6%, 74.1%, and 48.3%, respectively. The prosthetic motion mode, body mass index, type of reconstruction, type of prosthesis, and length of bone resection were independent risk factors for tumor prosthetic failure. A nomogram model was established using these significant predictors, with a concordance index of 0.77 and a favorable consistency between predicted and actual prosthetic failure rate according to the internal validation, indicating that the nomogram model had acceptable predictive accuracy. Conclusion: The prediction model identifies high-risk patients for whom attached preventive measures are required. Future studies regarding reduction in incidence of prosthetic failure should attach importance to these high-risk patients. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.