Energy efficiency, carbon-intensity and future carbon dioxide emissions from the developing world

This paper examines the potential influence of energy efficiency and economic efficiency on the future carbon dioxide emissions of developing countries. It explores and offers support to the hypothesis that, despite the value of greater energy efficiency, if tight restrictions on global carbon dioxide emissions were considered necessary, efficiency alone could make only a limited contribution to restraining the growth of developing country emissions. The limitation arises because of relatively high projected energy growth rates, especially in the industrial sector and in fossil-fuelled electricity and transport, which are associated with significant growth in per capita incomes and population. The potential contribution of other non-efficiency measures to address carbon dioxide emissions, particularly measures that reduce carbon-intensity, is also briefly discussed. One such measure would involve switching away from fossil fuels through expanded use of carbon-neutral biomass fuels.