Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions of Beijing Heating System: Based on a System Dynamics Model

Beijing is a typical North China city, and it uses about 15-18% of its total energy consumption for heating. The building construction industry is also a key source of CO2 emissions. This article, based on a system dynamics model, aims to simulate and forecast Beijing's energy consumption and CO2 emissions under different scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, the energy consumption of Beijing's heating system in 2030 will be 15.44 MTce and the corresponding CO2 emissions will be 9.71 MT. Gas is the major energy source for heating systems, accounting for more than 60% of the energy used. In the less building scenario, the energy used for heating in 2030 is projected to be 13.91 MTce, 9.88% less than baseline scenario. The cumulative saving in energy used for heating will be 19.39 MTce, with CO2 reductions of 12.38 MT. In the energy efficiency scenario, the energy consumed for heating in 2030 is projected to be 13.16 MTce, 14.73% less than baseline scenario. The cumulative saving in energy used for heating is projected to be 21.02 MTce, with a CO2 reduction of 12.13 MT. Thus, to achieve greater energy savings, a combination of policy measures, from both the demand side (smaller residential properties) and the technology side is needed.