A conceptual model is described for the prediction of wind erosion rates dependent on the distribution of impact energy delivered to the surface by saltating grains, P[Ei], and the distribution of local surface strength, P[Es]. Methods are presented for the measurement of both distributions and consequent loss of material from the bed. It is concluded that saltating sand grains can rupture weak crusts under even moderate wind conditions, and that the rate of erosion will depend on the shape of the distribution tails. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.