Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes

We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem (GEOS-Chem) model to interpret long-term measurements of tropospheric ozone (O-3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and to investigate the factors that contribute to their interannual variation (IAV) during the period from 1987 to 2005. The model reproduces relatively well the observed IAV of CO. The simulation of O-3 IAV is not as successful. In particular, the negative anomalies in 1991-1993 and the following upward trend in 1993-1996 observed at several sites in the northern midlatitudes are not reproduced by the model, which may result from a poor representation of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics. We examine in detail the period of 1998-1999 when a large anomaly in tropospheric ozone column is observed and simulated over Europe (maximum of +4.9 Dobson units). Three consecutive periods can be distinguished from January 1998 to April 1999, during which different processes affected the O-3 burden over Europe. Spring 1998 is largely influenced by the preceding 1997 El Nino that affects (1) stratosphere-troposphere exchange and (2) Asian pollution export and transport toward Europe by a change in convective activity in East Asia and a strengthening of the subtropical jet stream. An enhanced pollution export from North America is also noticed for this period. The second period (summer-fall 1998) shows a mixed influence from both boreal wildfires and Asian pollution. The third period is influenced by enhanced wildfires in Southeast Asia. Throughout the period from 1987 to 2005, positive anomalies in tropospheric O-3 column and in surface O-3 are found over Europe in the spring following an El Nino year.